Thursday, May 17, 2007

useless rebellion

there is news today of a renewed cycle of violence in palestine. israel bombed gaza in what it claims is retaliation to attacks and now hamas says that it will resume suicide bombings in israel. i don't understand the strategy of suicide bombings against civilians. i understand suicide missions against a military target, like a check post or guard tower or patrol or a base. that seems reasonable to me for a fight between unequals. but why civilians?

let me think this through out loud:

one national military vs. another national military
one offensive vs. one defensive
one winner and one loser
and after the peace talks
there is a new border

what should the losing national military do?
1-organize and fight a second round.
a chance for Egypt and Jordan to regain their territory

2-sign a peace deal and move on to other issues.
they have understood that they were the losers
and they are not strong enough to go head to head and win.
so they have sighed peace agreements.

what should the inhabitants of the defeated territory do?
how do you go from being powerless to having some power?

1-realize that they are residents of another country now.
they are lucky this is not the middle ages where they would have been sold into slavery, they have to realize that things will not be the same, there is a new master of the land now, a new king who has taken their land by force and they were not able to stop in war. they would have been begging for mercy and if granted would have tried to adapt to and take advantage of the new situation. but lucky for them, in our time, humanity has determined that there is something called human rights, and they can organize and try to establish some rights for themselves and try to become equal citizens of this new country that they belong to, become citizens of israel since they longer live in jordan(west bank) or egypt(gaza).

2-organize a rebellion against the new country and gain independence.
to force the new power out of the land that it conquered.
this is difficult if the new power's desire to retain the land is as strong as the inhabitants desire to expel them. israel's imperial agenda has a strong historical and religious component. making it quite monster to defeat.

How do you force an invader out?
1-organize, strategize, recruit fighters, train.
its not difficult if the new power is unjust, the people will find the rebellion and join it. but if it gives them rights, security, and opportunity for success, then a strong recruitment effort is needed, maybe even brainwashing to convince the recruits that things are not as good as they seem. but israel has not been a just conqueror, its every action in the conquered land breed new rebels.

2-take out its physical methods of control.
from within the conquered land and outside. maybe attack occupation forces, maybe attack check points, maybe attack supply chains. We have violent examples from the american revolution that show how to drive out an imperial power. We also have non-violent examples from the Indian revolution that demonstrate that we can disrupt control by not cooperating.

3-demoralize the enemy.
i think this is what the palestinians think suicide bombings will achieve. but its not the occupation military they wish to demoralize, its the citizens of the conquering nation. maybe it comes from a belief that the citizens are the source of strength for the enemy.

4-create an alternate government before Independence.
gain the support of the inhabitants and legitamacy to rule
its natural that there will be competing forces internally, and its natural that they will want to fight for control of the alternate government amongst themselves. but its a shame that they don't realized that their struggle for independence is not yet over.

so anyways i think they have a bad strategy to demoralize the enemy, it keeps making the enemy angry and fuels a desire for them to not only NOT give them independence, but to obliterate them in anger. imagine if the world wasn't watching.

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